Exit polls show major boost for Independents

Written By Unknown on Sabtu, 24 Mei 2014 | 22.40

Saturday 24 May 2014 15.31

RTÉ exit polls show that Independent and other candidates appear to have won the highest percentage of the vote in yesterday's local elections, while Sinn Féin appears to be on course to win an MEP seat in Dublin.

The local election poll, which was carried out by Behaviour and Attitudes, took the views of more than 3,000 voters and has a national margin of error of less than 2%.

The poll found Independents and others received 27% of the national vote in the European elections and 28% in the locals.

The Labour Party vote appears to have slumped from 19% in the last General Election to 7% in the locals and 6% in the Europeans.

Fine Gael's 36% support in 2011 fell to 24% in the local elections and to 22% in the European contest, according to the poll.

Fianna Fáil has seen an increase of 5% on its General Election showing, with the party's support estimated at 22%, which is below what it won in these elections five years ago.

Sinn Féin's support is up since the General Election from 10% to 17% in the European Elections and 16% in the council ones.

The Green Party is estimated to be 3% in the locals and 6% in the European elections.

Support for the Socialist Party and the People Before Profit Alliance is at a combined 3%. 

The European election poll - also carried out by Behaviour and Attitudes - took the views of more than 1,000 voters in the Dublin constituency and it has a margin of error 3%.

This poll puts Sinn Féin's Lynn Boylan on 24%, just short of a quota.

Four candidates appear to be in contention for the other two seats in Dublin.

They are Fine Gael's Brian Hayes and the Green's Eamon Ryan who are both on 14%.

Also in the race are Mary Fitzpatrick of Fianna Fáil on 12% and Independent Nessa Childers on 11%.

Labour's Emer Costello is on 8%, Paul Murphy of the Socialist Party is on 7% and Brid Smith of People Before Profit is on 6%.

Flanagan on course to win seat in Midlands North West

The exit poll shows Independent Luke 'Ming' Flanagan is on course to win a seat in the Midlands North West constituency.

The poll also took the views of just under 1,000 voters in the constituency and has a margin of error of around 3%.

Mr Flanagan looks like he could be leaving Leinster House for Brussels very soon.

He is on 20% support which, if this were to translate into votes, would be enough to elect him.

Fine Gael's Mairead McGuinness is estimated to have 16% support  which suggests she will win a seat.

Matt Carthy of Sinn Féin has 13% support.

That puts him firmly in the reckoning for a seat but he will need transfers to get there, based on these poll findings.

The combined Fianna Fáil vote here is 21% but it is split almost evenly between two candidates.

Pat the Cope Gallagher is on 11% and Thomas Byrne 10%. This vote will have to transfer smoothly if one of them is to get elected.

Sitting Independent MEP Marian Harkin is on 11%.

Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform Brendan Howlin has responded to early poll showings, saying people understand that the Government had to put in place the tough measures but did not like them.

Speaking to RTÉ, Mr Howlin said the poll showed people's reluctance to reward the Coalition coupled with an equal reluctance to switch their allegiance to the larger opposition parties.

The European Parliament Election votes will not be counted until tomorrow.

The final turnout for the elections, which closed at 10pm last night, is estimated at being somewhere around 50%.

The figure for the Euro South constituency finished just above that.

Turnout in the Midlands North West is expected to be somewhere between 55% and 60%, while the turnout in Dublin is likely to have been much lower.

The results of the two Dáil by-elections will be known later today, and many of the councillors are also expected to be elected by this evening.


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