Portugal to significantly increase tax rates

Written By Unknown on Rabu, 31 Oktober 2012 | 22.40

The move will pave the way for a court fight over a budget the government said it urgently needs to keep a €78bn bailout afloat.

Political tension has been increasing and anti-austerity demonstrations have become more common in recent weeks.

Despite being one of the countries worst hit by the eurozone crisis, Portugal had so far escaped unrest seen elsewhere.

The government of Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho is searching for ways to meet budget goals under its bailout from the EU and International Monetary Fund, without deepening the worst recession since the 1970s.

The 2013 budget's tax increases on income, property and financial transactions are the government's third attempt to tackle the deficit since July.

The constitutional court threw out a plan to cut civil servants' benefits, and a plan to increase social security payments was abandoned after street protests.

Political experts say the new budget is almost certain to be challenged in court, with unpredictable consequences.

"If the court finds something unconstitutional, it could still be something relatively easy to fix, or alternatively it could shoot down the budget and cause a political crisis," said Pedro Magalhaes, political scientist at the Social Sciences Institute of the Lisbon University.

"It's hard to predict the outcome: it wouldn't be the constitutional court if it were predictable."

The budget predicts a third year of recession, with unemployment forecast to rise further into record territory next year, to 16.4%. The current rate is around 15%.

Mr Coelho told parliament yesterday the budget was intended to create the conditions for Portugal to "turn the page on one of the most difficult periods of our history".

He should easily find enough support in parliament to enact his budget, but has faced tougher resistance from judges.

In July, the constitutional court ruled against a government measure stripping civil servants of their holiday and Christmas bonuses, on the grounds it unfairly impacted them.

The government then attempted to raise the social security contributions of all workers. That sparked mass protests, and it reversed course.

The 2013 budget, relying instead on large increases in income tax - of up to two months' salaries in some cases - is the culmination of those previous policy failures.

It stretched the cohesion of the coalition government, as the small rightist CDS party made clear it would prefer spending cuts to reach budget goals, but the CDS backed down and has promised to support it in parliament today.

After that, a constitutional court challenge could come at any time. Portugal's judges' union has promised to challenge the budget, on the grounds it goes against tax equality enshrined in the constitution.

The opposition Socialists have also said they would challenge it, and the president could submit it to the court himself in the process of signing off on it.

With the government's popularity already at record lows, a general strike planned for 14 November and some economists warning Portugal could enter a recessive cycle like Greece, additional doubt over austerity measures would hurt confidence further.

The economy is forecast to contract at least 3% this year and 1% in 2013 and many economists think even those forecasts are far too optimistic.

The concerns prompted the IMF to warn last week that the risks to Portugal's bailout have "increased markedly".

Portuguese bonds have also reacted, beginning to reverse sharp declines in yields since the beginning of the year.


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